Logika induktif [compatibility mode]

• Tidak selalu dapat menemukan premis yang memadai • Contoh: tidak dapat menemukan jumlah gigi di mulut kuda • Kurang disukai oleh ahli filsafat zaman kuno • Digalakkan oleh Roger Bacon, Francis Bacon, David Hume, dan lainnya • Mulai dari kasus yang cukup menuju ke generalisasi • Kelemahan: terjadi lompatan dari sebagian menjadi semua • Berdasarkan kasus membuat kesimpulan berlaku untuk semua • Generalisasi: semua gagak berbulu hitam • Generalisasi: semua swan berbulu putih • Kedapatan : swan berbulu hitam di Australia • Empirik ditambah argumentasi (alasan) • Semua tukang las ketok memasang merek “ketok magic” • Semua taksi bandara ber-AC memasang merek “full AC” • Semua ikan berwarna cerah lebih agresif dari ikan berwarna redup • Semua nyamuk tidak bergigi (bagaimana bisa digigit nyamuk?) • Selain pengalaman empirik, generalisasi diperkuat dengan penjelasan • Ketika udara panas, semua anjing menjulurkan lidah (menyejukkan diri melalui • Semua bahasa asal daerah tropis, mengandung banyak huruf hidup (membuka • Semua bahasa asal daerah kutub, mengandung banyak huruf mati (sedikit • Semua kuda nil merendam di dalam air (kulit kuda nil tidak berpori sehingga tidak dapat berkeringat untuk mendinginkan tubuh) • Reliabilitas generalisasi adalah tingkat kepercayaan tentang kebenaran • Generalisasi makin kuat jika tingkat reliabilitasnya makin tinggi• Ada beberapa cara untuk meningkatkan reliabilitas generalisasi • Banyak kasus dan representatif• Homogenitas • Melihat seluruh kasus• Reliabilitas adalah maksimum• Banyak hal yang tidak mungkin dienumerasi • Kasus yang diamati supaya cukup banyak • Cara ini dapat meningkatkan tingkat reliabilitas • Makin homogen kasusnya makin tinggi tingkat reliabilitasnya • Kalau homogen sempurna, maka cukup dengan satu kasus (terjadi di laboratorium fisika dan kimia; di mana saja, garam dapur adalah sama) • Digunakan pada metodologi penelitian supaya memperkecil kekeliruan baku • Generalisasi dapat melahirkan hukum baru (temuan baru) yang dapat terus • Konstitusi, seperti zat terdiri atas molekul • Urutan, seperti siang diikuti malam • Korelasi, seperti korelasi negatif di antara harga barang dan jumlah pembeli • Kosalitas (sebab-akibat), seperti pengaruh pupuk terhadap kesuburan tanaman • Analogi, seperti kesamaan hukum pada pegas dan udara • Tidak mudah untuk menentukan syarat kosalitas; diperdebatkan oleh para • Ada pendapat bahwa kosalitas lebih terletak di dalam pikiran manusia • Sangat berguna untuk keperluan prediksi • Akan dilihat beberapa patokan syarat dari • (1) Sebab-akibat terkait sangat erat di dalam ruang dan waktu (berjulat atau • (2) Di dalam urutan waktu, sebab mendahului akibat • (3) Di antara sebab dan akibat terdapat hubungan-perlu (necessary • Untuk memenuhi hubungan-perlu, kedua syarat ini harus dipenuhi • A adalah syarat-perlu bagi B; jika A tiada maka B juga tiada• Uang adalah syarat perlu bagi belanja; jika tidak ada uang, maka tidak bisa • A adalah syarat-cukup bagi B; jika A ada maka juga ada B• Ada uang (syarat-perlu) belum tentu belanja; pada syarat-cukup, jika ada • Tiada uang tidak bisa belanja• Ada uang harus belanja • Bahan bakar, temperatur yang cocok, dan oksigen adalah syarat-perlu untuk • Jika tidak ada bahan bakar, temperatur yang cocok, dan oksigen, maka tidak • Tendangan sapi ke lentera berisi bahan bakar adalah syarat-cukup untuk terjadi • Jika sapi tidak menendang lentera, sekalipun ada bahan bakar, ada temperatur yang cocok, dan oksigen, maka tidak terjadi kebakaran kota • (3) Gabungan metoda kecocokan dan perbedaan • Jika satu dan hanya satu keadaan relevan yang ada di semua kasus yang menghasilkan akibat, maka keadaan itu adalah penyebab atau berkaitan dengan penyebab • Setiap hari si Anu sakit perut. Ia menduga makanan pagi adalah penyebabnya • Senin: pisang, kopi, gula, roti, mentega• Sela • Rabu: pisang, kopi, gula, ikan, roti• Kamis: pisang, havermout, gula, susu, telur• Jumlah: pisang, susu, kue, sirup (mungkin saja bukan karena makan, atau karena makanan semalam, atau mungkin juga interaksi komponen makanan) (penyebab sesungguhnya adalah komponen yang ada di semua minuman: alkohol) • Jika keadaan adalah sama dalam segala hal kecuali satu, dan jika akibat terjadi pada semua hal kecuali pada hal tiadanya satu itu, maka satu itu adalah penyebab atau terkait dengan penyebab • Hari Sabtu, Anu makan pagi seperti hari Jumat kecuali pisang: Susu, kue, • Kalau akibatnya tidak sakit perut, maka pisang adalah penyebabnya • Kalau masih mabuk, maka es bukan penyebabnya • Keadaan relevan ada pada semua hal ketika terjadi akibat serta tidak ada ketika tidak terjadi akibat adalah penyebab atau terkait dengan penyebab • Apabila satu keadaan berubah secara teratur ketika keadaan lain berubah, maka ada semacam hubungan kosal di antara mereka • Pada hukum Boyle, dalam keadaan temperatur tetap, tekanan gas berubah Berhenti merokok % kanker paru thd(tahun) • Dapat terjadi karena kebetulan (sehingga memerlukan alasan hubungan) X = temperatur terendah di kutubY = jumlah mahasiswa bolos di Jakarta • Apabila bagian dari akibat tidak dapat dijelaskan oleh keadaan penyebab yang diketahui, maka keadaan tambahan perlu dicari untuk menjelaskan bagian yang tidak terjelaskan dari akibat itu (5) ada persamaan fungsional yang self-contained (9) ada dukugan data empirik terhadap persamaan fungsional (10) ada kecocokan di antara model struktural dan data empirik • Untuk memisahkan hubungan fungsional sebab-akibat dari sekedar • Perlu mengidentifikasi mekanisme dari hubungan fungsional itu • Perlu ada kepastian urutan bahwa sebab terjadi sebelum akibat • Dalam keadaan tidak pasti, urutan waktu dapat diperdebatkan • Kalau tidak dapat dipastikan maka tidak bisa menjadi sebab-akibat • Hanya boleh satu arah dari sebab ke akibat (asimetrik) • Tidak boleh bolak-balik seperti telur dan ayam, baik secara cepat maupun Kondisi 5: Persamaan fungsional self-contained • Semua penyebab yang relevan sudah termasuk ke dalam hubungan • Harus self-contained yakni tidak berhubungan dengan luar sistem • Setiap variabel termasuk variabel moderator membentuk lingkupan • Makin banyak moderator makin tinggi kompleksitasnya • Perlu ada batas lingkupan yang jelas • Dari sebab ke akibat terjadi perubahan, bisa cepat atau lambat, bisa langsung • Perubahan berhenti pada saat terjadi keseimbangan pada perubahan itu • Pengukuran dilakukan pada saat keseimbangan – Variabel dapat diukur sehingga menghasilkan data kuantitatif • Perlu ada skala dan alat ukur yang cocok dengan kalibrasi yang memadai • Pada variabel laten perlu dicari variabel manifes yang sepadan Kondisi 9: Dukungan empiris kepada persamaan fungsional • Hubungan fungsional kosalitas menghasilkan prediksi • Prediksi mendukung model struktural, dari hubungan fungsional ke • Diuji apakah prediksinya konsisten atau didukung oleh data empirik Kondisi 10: Kecocokan di antara model struktural dengan data empirik • Perlu diuji kecocokan di antara bentuk model struktural dengan data empirik • Misalnya, hubungan kuadratis atau kubik atau eksponensial, didukung oleh • Menyusun teori atau hukum berdasarkan kemiripan penting dengan teori • Misalnya, hukum dan teori pada X sudah diketahui; Y mirip dengan X; susun hukum dan teori pada Y meniru hukum dan teori pada X • Sifat pegas, tekanan pada kolom udara, dan rangkaian listrik adalah mirip • Susun rumus pada kolom udara dan pada rangkaian listrik meniru rumus • Entropi pada termodinamika digunakan sebagai analogi untuk keteraturan • Hubungan meson dengan medan kuat mengambil analogi dari hubungan • Dapat memanfaatkan pemikiran yang sudah ada pada keadaan tertentu • Sering digunakan di antara ilmu berbeda, misalnya, organisasi sosial Analogy (from Greek ana logon “according to ratio”), originally, a similarity in proportional relationship. It may be similarity between two figures (e.g.,triangles) that differ in scale or between two quantities, one of which, thoughunknown, can be calculated if its relation to the other is known to be similar tothat in which two other known quantities stand. Thus if 2 : 4 :: 4: x, it can beseen that x = 8. Another form of analogy noted by the Greeks is that of inferringsimilarity of function; known as “educing the correlate.” Aristotle (Topics, i, 17)stated the formulas of these two kinds of analogy: “As A is to B, so C is to D”and “ As A is in B, so C is in D.” vision possible in the perceptual world. Here a relationship not yet understoodis analogous to one already familiar.
In the Middle Ages it was believed that the universe formed an ordered structure such that the macrocosmic pattern of the whole is reproduced in themicrocosmic pattern of the parts so that it is possible to draw inferences byanalogy from the one to the other. Thus, the law of nature conceived in thejuridical sense, which prescribes the fitting order of human relationships, couldbe assimilated to the physical sense of law, which describes the order obtaining in the natural world. Because thenatural world exhibited hierarchical degrees of subordination, it was argued,human relationships should also exhibit such subordination. Such parallels wereheld to constitute arguments and not merely allegorical illustrations; it wascontended, for instance, that as there were two luminaries to light the worldand two authorities set oven man (the papacy and the empire), then, as theMoon’s light is reflected from the Sun, so the imperial authority must bederived from the papal. Dante, in his De monarchia (c. 1313), while claimingthat it is light and not authority that the empire derives from the papacy,nev In scientific thinking analogies or resemblances may be used to suggest hypotheses or the existence of some law or principle, especially if a comparisoncan be made between the functions of elements in two systems, as whenobservation of the moon of Jupiter suggested by analogy the modernconception of solar system. The argument of Thomas Robert Malthus, theEnglish economist, the population tends to increase in numbers beyond the means of their subsistence suggested to Charles Darwinthe evolutionary hypothesis of natural selection. The fruitfulness of suchanalogies depends on whether the resemblance is of a fundamental or amerely superficial kind. Functional resemblances are more likely to befundamental than qualitative ones (such as colour). It would not be legitimate,for instance, to conclude from the model of atomic nucleus as a miniature solarsystem that the process of nuclear fission is similar to that by which newplanetary systems may be formed or disrupted.
In social and political discussion analogous may elucidate some unfamiliar misleading, however, insofar as they overlook that fact that individual membersof the community also have purposes, rights, and responsibilities of their own.
In employing the method of analogy, it should always be possible to show thatthe resemblances noted bear relevantly on the point to be established,whereas the differences are irrelevant. In many cases it is difficult to be sure ofthis construction, and arguments from analogy are therefore precarious unlesssupported by considerations that can be established independently.
• Penyusunan hukum dan teori melalui logika induktif • Menggunakan cara seperti terdapat pada logika induktif yakni menggunakan • Dapat menghasilkan hukum dan teori baru • Amatan yang menjadi dasar bagi generalisasi harus cukup banyak dan cukup • Amatan diperoleh dari aneka kondisi yang luas • Tidak ada amatan yang bertentangan dengan hukum atau teori yang disusun … In a recent Harvard Medical School study of 16,000 children aged nine to 14, 24 per cent of those who dined daily with their family got therecommended five servings of fruits … (Reader’s Digest, Dec., 2001, p. 136) … In animal studies, the form of vitamin A called retinol can slow bone growth, so researches at Harvard Medical School decided to check dietarylevels of the vitamin in 72,337 women in the Nurses’ Health Study. … (Reader’sDig … the scientists at the Harvard School of Public Health followed 2419 diabetic men over ten-year period. They discovered that those who drank …(Reader’s Digest, July, 2002, p. 19) … The latest evidence comes from the Physician’s Health study, a long term analysis of the diet, health and exercise habits of 22,000 doctors Researchers atthe Havard Medical School found that … (Reader’s Digest, November 2002, p.
17) … In an analysis of the health habits of 72,488 nurses over the past 14 years, researchers from the Harvard School of Public Health recently found that thosewho walked six or more hours per week decreased by 40 per cent their risk ofsuffering strokes caused by a clot. … (Reader’s Digest, December 2002, p. 106) .Figure 2.3.2 presents empirical ICCs for several other SAT-V items obtained from the responses of the 49,470 examinees described previously. … (Charles L.
Hulin, et al. Item Response Theory, p. 21) … Figure 2.3.3 presents the empirical ICC for the item “pleasant” based on the responses of 3,812 workers. … (Hulin, op. Cit., p. 23) … Doctors at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm charted the health, lifestyle and diet of 3136 pair of male twins during 30-year period up to 1997and tracked the progress of 466 men diagnosed with prostrate cancer …(Reader’s Digest, November 2002, p. 18) … A recent study at the Dartmouth Medical School in Hanover, New Hampshire, followed 1121 people who had one or more adenomas(precancerous polyps) removed from the large bowel. … (Reader’s Digest,October 2002, p. 20) … Researchers at the National Public Health Institute in Helsinki, Finland, measured the rheumatoid factor--an immune protein present in three-quartersof patients with rheumatism--in 7,000 people with no clinical evidence ofar … Researchers analyzing the data from studies involving more 10,000 women who took alendronate or raloxifene found that very small percentage of thewomen appeared to lose BMD over the first year … (Reader’s Digest, August2002, p. 20) … U.S. researchers with Framingham Heart Study in Boston tracked 6,859 people with normal blood pressure for 12 years … (Reader’s Digest, May 2002,p. 20) … according to a Tuft University survey. Scientists tested blood of 2,999 participants; … (Reader’s Digest, March 2002, p. 132) … Doctors at the National Eye Institute in America ranked 3,640 patients by the stage of their disease; early … (Reader’s Digest, April 2002, p. 20) … Brenda Pennix, a gerontologist at Wake Forest University, North Carolina, and colleagues follows 2,847 people over the age of 55--both with and withouthear • Hukum atau teori yang diturunkan secara induktif perlu diuji (biasanya diuji terus menerus, apa lagi ketika ditemukan kondisi atau cara atau alat baru) • Pengujian terjadi pada penelitian yang menggunakan hukum dan teori ini • Mungkin saja ada kekeliruan pada observasi • Observasi perlu dibantu dengan teori lain, sedangkan teori lain mungkin saja • Terjadi lompatan dari kasus ke generalisasi seeking to discredit the source of argument by charging irrelevant personalshortcomings (2) Damning the Origin, Ceremony, and Setting “Damning the origin” suggests dismissing argument because the origin isunimpressive--e.g., inexperienced, unsuccessful, radical, and so on.
“Ceremony” and “Setting” refer to psychological influence these factorshave in swaying the audience’s receptiveness toward argument An authority is qualified only if it meets all of the following requirements:(1) identification by name, (2) recognition by others in the field, (3) currentin the sense of not obsolete, (4) opinion expressed within the authority’sfield. A misuse of authority is an invitation ot accept as authority a sourcelacking any of these qualifications Citing as argument the belief of numbers of people who are not speciallyqualified to judge the problem Repeating the tradition and implying that departure therefrom would bescandalous without showing why the tradition should be followed on itsmerits.
Seeking to gain support by announcing agreement with ideas that arepopular with the audience (7) Forestalling Disagreement: Poisoning the Well Presenting argument in a way that makes disagreement embarrassing Playing on fears by making unfounded innuendos or distorted charges, or byexaggerating dangers and difficulties Seeking to influence action by pointing to personal hardship either in a waythat is overdrawn or in a situation in which personal circumstances arebeside the point Arguing that since something cannot be proved, the opposite should betaken to be true (11) Misuse of Humor and Ridicule: Lost in the Laugh Distracting thought with humor and ridicule (12) Obfuscation, Pettifogging, and Clamorous Insistence on Irrelevancies These fallacies do not define neatly. Unclear discussion and urging trivial matters will obscure argument whether intended to do so or not (13) The Barrage of Objections and the Call for Perfection Overemphasis on objections makes a distorted argument. A call for perfection suggests that practical action should await ideal conditions or that a solution should await the perfection of human beings themselves Claiming that one wrong justifies another wrong. Where the actions are related the situation may be murky (15) Argument of the Club: Argumentum ad Baculum Substituting a threat, either of physical harm or of loss of some otherinterest for argument The connotative suggestions of words, rhythm, and dramatic arrangementin sentences often sway the reception of argument. Fallacy exists whereverth 1. Hasty generalization rests on too few cases 2. Unrepresentative generalization rests on cases that are not typical (18) Assuming the Cause: Post Hoc Reasoning Taking the mere fact that one event precedes another as a sufficient proofof causal relationship (19) Misuse of Hypothesis Contrary to Fact treating as certain the outcome of a hypothetical situation when in fact theoutcome is subject to a reasonable doubt An extension is fallacious where the extended position does not fairly comeun the argument involves a principle that must apply to the extended position also A comparison of things or situations that lack essential similarity within the areacompared may be made for the purpose of illustration. It is a fallacy to suggestsuch a comparison as a support for argument The fallacy of composition assumes that the characteristics of the parts will befound in the whole to which they contribute the fallacy of division assumes thatthe characteristics of an organized whole will be possessed by each part one of the alternatives is not a disadvantage (24) Black-or-white Fallacy: The Great Either … or This is presenting a situation in simple all-or-nothing terms when there are otherpossibilities in between (25) Argument on the Beard: One More Doesn’t Matter When a line has to be drawn in a continuum, it is a fallacy to either ridiculethe fine distinctions that necessarily result or to argue that “one moredoesn’t matter.” One may argue properly that the cutoff point in thecontinuum is a poor choice or that circumstances make it desirable todepart form the rule A leading question is calculated to influence the answer A question is begged by assuming what should be proved (28) Oversimplification: Tabloid Thinking When a complicated situation is presented in simple assertions to the pointof serious inaccuracy there is simplification Assuming that words or phrases assure the existence of the notions theydescribe Violating the rule that “a categorical syllogism must have exactly threeterms, each used exactly twice.” Violating the rule that “a categorical syllogism must exclusion or two exclusions, one of which must appear in the conclusion.” (32) Fallacy of the Undistributed Middle Term Violating the rule that “the middle term of a categorical syllogism must bedistributed at least once.” Violating the rule that “any term distributed in the conclusion of acategorical syllogism must be distributed in the premise where it appears.” Violating either of the rules for conversion produces a false conversion. Theru 1. The converse must retain the same quality as the original--I.e., bothaffirmative or both negative 2. No tem may be distributed in the converse unless it was distributed in theoriginal Violating either of the rules for obversion produces a false obversion. Therules are: 1. An inclusion in the original is changed to an exclusion, or vice versa Any violation of the rules for the hypothetical syllogism is a fallacy. The mostimportant rule for a valid hypothetical is that the minor premise must affirm theantecedent or deny the consequent rule for a valid disjunctive is that the minor premise must affirm one disjunct any violation of the rules for alternative syllogism is a fallacy. The important rulefor a valid alternative syllogism is that the minor premise must deny onealternative

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