Bio-era.net

H1N1 Pandemic News Notes
H1N1 Trend Update
urge countries with large case loads to shift from worry-ing about individual testing results to looking for “larger Sunday, Libya announced its first confirmed case of the national indicators of the disease.” A WHO spokesperson H1N1 virus in a 52-year old man who recently arrived stated, “Because the number of cases have increased in so from Thailand.1 Macedonia also confirmed its first cases many countries it is very hard to keep up and so we need of the H1N1 virus in two people who recently returned to move towards these kinds of indicators to keep follow- from traveling abroad.2 On Saturday, Syria confirmed its ing on with the trend of the pandemic.”6 first case of the H1N1 virus in an Australian woman who recently arrived in the country.3 Evolution
Perception
Response
Evolution
Perception
Response
UN: $1 Billion Needed
WHO: Downplays
to Combat Swine Flu
Tamiflu Resistance;
Yesterday, the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Shifting to Less Testing
announced that it projects it will need funding of more than $1 billion dollars to assist poorer countries in coping with Today, a WHO spokesperson announced that it does not the spread of the H1N1 virus. These funds will be used to see H1N1 Tamiflu resistance spreading in a sustainable obtain vaccine and antiviral supplies for the world’s poorest way. The announcement comes after three cases of Tamiflu countries, which the WHO’s chief classified as “empty-hand- resistance were confirmed in Denmark, Hong Kong, and ed” in their preparedness for dealing with the spread of the Japan last week. The WHO does not recommend any virus. The WHO’s chief elaborated stating that they want changes in approaches toward the treatment of the virus to send minimum vaccine stockpiles to at least 49 of the and said, “Right now these examples of oseltamivir resis- world’s poorest countries, and estimate that stockpiles large tance remain sporadic cases. We do not see any evidence enough to cover 5% of the countries populations would be of widespread movement of oseltamivir resistant viruses.”4 reasonable for ensuring that at least health care providers are In its latest update on the spread of H1N1, the WHO has protected. The UN Security-General said, “Public funding confirmed 94,512 cases and 429 deaths worldwide.5 should come first before we ask for any private fundings.” 7 The WHO also announced today that it will soon be issu- Evolution
Perception
Response
ing updated surveillance recommendations for countries
to follow. The new surveillance recommendations will -2
This document has been prepared by bio-era as a part of the “Thinking Ahead” service, designed to support commercial decision-making in response to the anticipated commercial and economic impacts of novel H1N1 pandemic influenza. The service seeks to monitor and evaluate current developments based on their significance with respect to three criteria: the significance of the news item for (1) the evolution of the physical disease event; (2) its effects on perceptions of threat (i.e., fear); and (3) examples of reaction or response to (1) and (2) above. To the extent possible, bio-era seeks to integrate an understanding of the particular news items identified as leading indicators or signposts within a broader bio-era scenario-based decision-support framework. To learn more about the service, the scenarios framework, or to enroll, please visit www.bio-era.net.
bio-era • H1N1 Pandemic News Notes • Tuesday, July 7, 2009 Argentina Announces
like, “I don’t pay any attention to what they’re saying. I Additional H1N1 Measures
don’t have any confidence in them.”9 Evolution
Perception
Response
Over the past week, government officials in Argentina
have reacted to the rising number of cases and deaths
by declaring health emergencies in 17 of 24 provinces. -2
Officials announced more measures over the weekend H1N1 Related Prison
aimed at reducing the spread of the virus, including the
closure of public offices for 30 days. Argentina’s H1N1 R i ot O u t s i d e B o s t o n
related death toll has more doubled over the past week to Two days after a small riot among inmates at the
60 confirmed deaths.8 Even a group of theater owners has Middlesex County Jail outside of Boston forced the tem- announced they will be closing down for 10 days because porary evacuation of the facility, investigators have con- cluded that the riot was, at least in part, fueled by fears of the H1N1virus spreading through the jail. The small The rising number of H1N1 cases and deaths in Argentina jail built to house 160 inmates, had been holding 403, has also begun to raise doubts among citizens there about and one inmate had been diagnosed with the virus on how the government is handling the outbreak. In recent June 30th, while two more staff members were treated for years, there have been several controversies and scandals symptoms. On Sunday, two more inmates were quaran- regarding the government’s reporting of key econom- tined because of flu like symptoms, and shortly thereafter, ic indicators, including accusations that data has been a small riot broke out during which water pipes were manipulated. These scandals seem to have spilled over smashed open and created a flood that forced the evacua- and affected perceptions around H1N1, causing some tion of the jail.10 citizens to question the reporting on H1N1 cases around the country, and the government’s general handling of the Evolution
Perception
Response
situation. Interviewed citizens were cited as saying things Bio-era's judgement regarding the extent to which a development is positive or negative for: (1) the physical evolution of the disease, (2) perceptions of the disease, and (3) future disease event impacts.
Physical Evolution
How significant is the development with respect to
the evolution, transmissability, and virulence of the Perception
How significant is the development with respect to
perceptions of threat (i.e., fears of the disease)? Response/Reaction
To what degree does the response help or hinder
the effort to mitigate the impacts the disease? Bio-era's meter weighing the extent to which daily developments are positive or negative in regard to: (1) the physical evolution of the disease, (2) perceptions of the disease, and (3) future disease event impacts.
Negative Developments
Positive Developments
Bio-era's meter weighing the extent to which daily developments are positive or negative in regard to: (1) the physical evolution of the disease, (2) perceptions of the disease, and (3) future disease event impacts.
Negative Developments
Positive Developments
bio-era • H1N1 Pandemic News Notes • Tuesday, July 7, 2009 1 Reuters. “Libya reports first case of new H1N1 flu.” July 5, 2009. See: http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA- 2 Reuters. “Macedonia confirms first two cases of H1N1 flu virus.” July 5, 2009. See: http://www.reuters.com/article/ 3 Times of India. “Syria Confirms First Swine Flu Case.” July 4, 2009. See: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/World/ Middle-East/Syria-confirms-first-swine-flu-case/articleshow/4738230.cms 4 Reuters. “WHO sees no sign of Tamiflu-resistant H1N1 spreading.” July 7, 2009. See: http://www.reuters.com/ 5 WHO. “Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 - Update 58.” July 6, 2009. See: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/updates/ 6 ABS-CBN News. “WHO to ask infected countries to stop testing swine flu cases.” July 7, 2009. See: http://www.abs- cbnnews.com/world/07/07/09/who-ask-infected-countries-stop-testing-swine-flu-cases 7 AP. “U.N. Head: $1B Needed Against Swine Flu.” July 6, 2009. See: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/07/06/ 8 Inside Costa Rica. “Argentina Applying A(H1N1) Measures.” July 4, 2009. See: http://insidecostarica.com/ 9 Reuters. “Argentines question government as flu spreads.” July 6, 2009. See: http://www.reuters.com/article/ 10 Boston Herald. “Jail tapes eyed for mayhem clues.” July 7, 2009. See: http://www.bostonherald.com/news/regional/ view/20090707jail_tapes_eyed_for_mayhem_clues/srvc=home&position=also

Source: http://www.bio-era.net/activities/news/pandemic_news_070709.pdf