NiveshDaily September 16, 2013 FROM RESEARCH DESK Previous (day) Close News Updates Daljeet S. Kohli Head of Research
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IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV. News Updates Bhagwan Singh Chaudhary Sun Pharma received ANDA approval for Prevacid (Lansoprazole delayed release capsule) & DRL for Navelbine…Sentiment positive for Sun Pharma, Neutral for DRL.
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Sun Pharma has announced ANDA approval for Prevacid (Lansoprazole Delayedrelease capsule) by USFDA.Originator of the drug is Takeda and Prevacid is used forhealing and symptom relief of active duodenal ulcer. The drug had been genericisedin the year 2010 and currently 5-6 generic players are in the market including DRL,Wockhardt, Mylan, Sandoz & Cadila healthcare. Current market size of drug standsat $430 mn.
Among the 5-6 generic players Mylan has major Rx market share of ~45% for thedrug and second highest market share is of DRL i.e ~20%, which has been underpressure in the last 3-4 months. ANDA approval for Prevacid for Sun Pharma wouldhave insignificant impact on its financials. At the same time this development wouldbe sentiment negative for DRL due to potential price reduction and increase incompetition.
However, ANDA approval for Navelbine (Vinorelbine tartrate) injection for Dr Reddy’sLab, which is used for the treatment of breast cancer, would offset the negativesentiments arising from Prevacid. Valuations: At CMP of Rs 2250, the stock of DRL is trading at P/E multiple of 23.4x of FY14E & 20.8x of FY15E. We have HOLD rating on the stock with the target price of Rs 2059.
At CMP of Rs 563, the stock of Sun Pharma is trading at P/E multiple of 24.4x ofFY14E & 21.5x of FY15E. We have BUY rating on the stock with the target price ofRs 602. Bhagwan Singh Chaudhary Ranbaxy’s Mohali Plant also received import alert….huge negative for the company
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Ranbaxy’s Mohali plant also received import alert for its Mohali plant. The company’s
two facilities Dewas & Paonta Sahib are already under import alert and in January2012 Ranbaxy went under consent decree with USFDA. Mohali plant was only plantfrom India, from where it was supplying drugs to US market. Additionally, ANDAsfor two big molecules i.e Diovan ($2.5bn) & Nexium (~$3bn) were filed from thesame unit and Diovan was in pipeline since the last one years to get approval with180 days exclusivity. Nexium was likely to get approval in January 2014.
Given the current negative development or import alert from the Mohali facility, itis very unlikely to get approval for Diovan & Nexium in the coming one and halfyears. Additionally, negative development under consent decree will be big blowfor the company. Valuations: Current development is likely to be huge negative for the stock. We will not be surprised if stock corrects to its pre-Q2CY13 results level of ~Rs250 in the coming few days. We had NEUTRAL rating on the stock with negative bias, prior this development.
At CMP of Rs 457, the stock is trading at P/E multiple of 21x of CY13E & 16.7x ofCY14E. IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily September 16, 2013 | 2 Global Markets - Outlook Dharmesh Kant Global Market Update
AVP - Strategies & Fund Manager (PMS)
US Markets: U.S. stocks rose on Friday, with the Dow industrials posting their
best week since January, as worries about Syria ebbed and as investors looked
to next week’s monetary-policy decision by the Federal Reserve.
The disappointing economic data fueled bets that any Federal Reserve stimuluscuts this month would be moderate. A Commerce Department report todayshowed retail sales in the U.S. rose 0.2 percent, the smallest increase in fourmonths and below the 0.5 percent advance seen in Bloomberg survey. Wholesale prices in the U.S. rose more than forecast in August, adding 0.3percent on higher costs for food and some fuels.
A separate report showed inventories at companies increased more thanforecast in July, trailing a gain in sales that signals a pickup in factory orders. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary September indexof consumer sentiment fell to 76.8 from 82.1 last month, which was the lowestsince April.
The Fed will taper its $85 billion in monthly bond-buying by $10 billion to $75billion after next week’s meeting, according to the median forecast ofeconomists in a Bloomberg News survey. Day’s Performance: Up 3% on the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 75.42 points, or 0.5%, to 15,376.06 on Friday. Tallying a 2% weekly gain, the S&P 500 Index was up 4.57 points, or 0.3%, at 1,687.99. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 6.22 points, or 0.2%, to 3,722.18, leaving it up 1.7% from the week-ago close. For every two stocks falling, more than three gained on the New York Stock Exchange, where 569 million shares traded. Set ups on S&P 500, Dow Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 are strong where corrections are likely to be bought into. Emerging markets: Asia’s benchmark stock indexes rose after Lawrence Summers withdrew from consideration to be the next Federal Reserve chairman, paving the way for Janet Yellen, who some investors say may favor a slower reduction in U.S. stimulus. Bullions & Commodities: Gold is trading at $1324.52 per troy ounce this morning down (0.12%) from previous close. WTI Crude future is trading at 107.48 per barrel while Brent Crude future is trading at $110.85 per barrel. Currencies: The U.S. Dollar Index tracking the U.S. currency against a basket of six others currencies trading at 81.09 this morning down (0.53%) from previous close. Long term set ups up on Dollar Index are looking good. A break above 84 on a weekly closing basis is required for new positional Bull Run to begin in Dollar index. The likely upside then would be around 89 levels. The dollar and U.S. stocks often trade on opposite paths, with a weak dollar seen as providing investors with cheap funding to buy stocks. Plus the dollar’s drop generally helps U.S. companies’ overseas sales. IndiaNivesh Research NiveshDaily September 16, 2013 | 3 IndiaNivesh Securities Private Limited
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